Boosted by growth in emerging markets, IDC is
projecting that Nokia-Windows Phone devices will be the second most
popular smartphone operating system....
Boosted by growth in emerging markets, IDC is
projecting that Nokia-Windows Phone devices will be the second most
popular smartphone operating system by 2016.
The firm believes
that Google Android will increasingly rely on Samsung's high end
devices, Apple's market saturation will lock the company into a
'replacement' cycle rather than expanding its customer base and that RIM
will struggle.
Most surprisingly, the firm is claiming that Nokia
devices running Windows Phone operating systems will be the number two
smartphone operating system with 19% market share, behind Android, with
Apple in third place.
Microsoft has been struggling
to get smartphone makers, such as Samsung, HTC and LG, to continue
development on its platform, preferring Android's existing user base
over an
untried platform.
IDC's
report is also projecting that the growth in overall mobile phone sales
this year will be just 4%, the lowest annual growth rate since 2009.
Vendors are projected to ship 1.8 billion mobile phones in 2012,
compared to 1.7 billion in 2011. This is projected to reach 2.3 billion
in 2016, according to IDC's figures.
Much of the growth problem
appears to be occurring due to a projected 10% decline in feature phone
ownership, in uncertain economic times these users are holding onto
their existing devices for longer, rather than contributing to the
upgrade cycle.
This damage is offset somewhat by smartphones, a
market which is expected to grow by 39% year over year to 686 million
units in 2012.
Already
51% of Britons own smartphones.
The
smartphone market is being fuelled by increased carrier subsidies,
falling retail prices and component costs. Data usage plans are also
falling in price, which is moving smartphones out of the realms of upper
class customers and making them available to the masses.
The
market remains dominated by Google's Android and Apple's iOS operating
systems, which power Apple's iPhones and popular Android devices such as
Samsung's Galaxy SIII and the HTC One X.
IDC believes that
Nokia's Symbian operating system is all but dead, and that BlackBerry
and Nokia will continue to hold market share, particularly in emerging
markets.
"Android will maintain leadership throughout our
forecast, while others will gain more mobile operator partnerships
(Apple) or currently find themselves in the midst of a major transition
(BlackBerry and Windows Phone). What remains to be seen is how these
different operating systems - as well as others - will define and shape
the user experience beyond what we see today in order to attract new
customers and encourage replacements," said Ramon Llamas, senior
research analyst at IDC.
Android will remain the most shipped
smartphone operating system over the next five years, although IDC
believes its market share will peak this year.
IDC projects that
the iPhone 4S's strong momentum will continue this year, particularly in
the North America, Western Europe, and Asia/Pacific (including China).
This share will moderate over the next five years as iOs's large user
base is tied to replacement/upgrade cycles. Although a small market
share decline is expected, IDC expects significant overall shipment
volume growth to continue through 2016.
Despite market naysayers,
IDC believes that Windows Phone 7 will gain market share after a slow
entry to market. It will be aided by Nokia's strength in key emerging
markets, as these users increasingly move from feature phones to
smartphones. IDC Windows Phone 7 to be the number 2 OS with 19% share in
2016.
Long troubled RIM
is expected to survive in emerging markets where users are looking for
affordable messaging devices. However, IDC believes the gulf between
BlackBerry OS's and the competition will widen as the mobile phone
market increasingly
relies on product eco-systems, and
BYOD trends mean that consumers favour devices on Android or Apple OS's.
Unsurprisingly,
IDC projects Symbian to be all but extinct by 2014. Nokia and Microsoft
needs to move its client base to Windows Phone 7 'as soon as possible
in order to maintain relevancy in the smartphone race.
