Boosted by growth in emerging markets, IDC is projecting that Nokia-Windows Phone devices will be the second most popular smartphone operating system....
The firm believes that Google Android will increasingly rely on Samsung's high end devices, Apple's market saturation will lock the company into a 'replacement' cycle rather than expanding its customer base and that RIM will struggle.
Most surprisingly, the firm is claiming that Nokia devices running Windows Phone operating systems will be the number two smartphone operating system with 19% market share, behind Android, with Apple in third place.
Microsoft has been struggling to get smartphone makers, such as Samsung, HTC and LG, to continue development on its platform, preferring Android's existing user base over an untried platform.
IDC's report is also projecting that the growth in overall mobile phone sales this year will be just 4%, the lowest annual growth rate since 2009. Vendors are projected to ship 1.8 billion mobile phones in 2012, compared to 1.7 billion in 2011. This is projected to reach 2.3 billion in 2016, according to IDC's figures.
Much of the growth problem appears to be occurring due to a projected 10% decline in feature phone ownership, in uncertain economic times these users are holding onto their existing devices for longer, rather than contributing to the upgrade cycle.
This damage is offset somewhat by smartphones, a market which is expected to grow by 39% year over year to 686 million units in 2012.
Already 51% of Britons own smartphones.
The smartphone market is being fuelled by increased carrier subsidies, falling retail prices and component costs. Data usage plans are also falling in price, which is moving smartphones out of the realms of upper class customers and making them available to the masses.
The market remains dominated by Google's Android and Apple's iOS operating systems, which power Apple's iPhones and popular Android devices such as Samsung's Galaxy SIII and the HTC One X.
IDC believes that Nokia's Symbian operating system is all but dead, and that BlackBerry and Nokia will continue to hold market share, particularly in emerging markets.
"Android will maintain leadership throughout our forecast, while others will gain more mobile operator partnerships (Apple) or currently find themselves in the midst of a major transition (BlackBerry and Windows Phone). What remains to be seen is how these different operating systems - as well as others - will define and shape the user experience beyond what we see today in order to attract new customers and encourage replacements," said Ramon Llamas, senior research analyst at IDC.
Android will remain the most shipped smartphone operating system over the next five years, although IDC believes its market share will peak this year.
IDC projects that the iPhone 4S's strong momentum will continue this year, particularly in the North America, Western Europe, and Asia/Pacific (including China). This share will moderate over the next five years as iOs's large user base is tied to replacement/upgrade cycles. Although a small market share decline is expected, IDC expects significant overall shipment volume growth to continue through 2016.
Despite market naysayers, IDC believes that Windows Phone 7 will gain market share after a slow entry to market. It will be aided by Nokia's strength in key emerging markets, as these users increasingly move from feature phones to smartphones. IDC Windows Phone 7 to be the number 2 OS with 19% share in 2016.
Long troubled RIM is expected to survive in emerging markets where users are looking for affordable messaging devices. However, IDC believes the gulf between BlackBerry OS's and the competition will widen as the mobile phone market increasingly relies on product eco-systems, and BYOD trends mean that consumers favour devices on Android or Apple OS's.
Unsurprisingly, IDC projects Symbian to be all but extinct by 2014. Nokia and Microsoft needs to move its client base to Windows Phone 7 'as soon as possible in order to maintain relevancy in the smartphone race.
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